Winning the Senate on Tuesday is likely to be a much harder task for Democrats.
Thirty-five seats are up for election, and they will need a net gain of four to win control. If they lose in Michigan – a battleground seat they already hold – they will need a net gain of five seats to win it.
Most of the battleground races are close and several sit within the margin of error for pollsters. The crucial Senate races to watch are in Michigan, Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Maine, Alaska and North Carolina.
This is, in reality, where these midterm elections will be won and lost.
There is, as always with American elections, an important caveat around the polls. They have historically overestimated the Democratic Party and underestimated President Trump, who appears convinced that he can once again defy them.
But if the polls are close to correct about the suggested surge of support for Democrats, then he could be looking at painful defeats in states that have been reliable Republican strongholds for decades.
How Trump may respond to any stinging losses is an open question. He has repeatedly questioned the integrity and security of these elections, and the possibility that he does so again as votes are still being counted or when results are declared is a very real one.
These elections, however, represent a hugely significant moment for Americans, many of whom want to see real change over the next two years.
For both parties, they will serve as the final electoral test before a 2028 presidential election that will determine what a post-Trump politics looks and feels like. And for the president himself, they are an opportunity for voters to cast judgement on how he and his party are performing.
As Trump looks to shape his legacy in the next two years, the question is whether a change in control of Congress, which he has largely bypassed, would really curb his presidency at all.
