Families in China are for the first time supporting more elderly people than children, the country’s government has said.
Official data released in the last week, external show the ratio of China’s dependent elderly people compared to the working age population rose to 23% last year, overtaking the figure for children, which stood at 22%.
The numbers are closely watched for signs of how China’s shrinking workforce will impact both the world’s second largest economy and global growth as a whole.
The latest figures mark a significant milestone as China grapples with an ageing population that could have implications for families, pensions and healthcare spending, analysts say.
China has been preparing for a growing proportion of elderly people in recent years, while urging younger generations to get married and for couples to have more children.
The latest data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics show there are now more than 223 million people in China aged 65 and above, accounting for nearly 16% of the country’s total population.
At the same time there are about 213 million children aged 14 and under.
No official commentary was published with the statistics. But Chinese state-controlled news outlet Global Times wrote that the nation’s “entry into a moderately ageing society” is the result of a mix of factors, including the “size of past birth cohorts” and longer life expectancy.
The shift could place added strain on pension, healthcare and long-term care systems, while also creating opportunities in the so-called silver economy that caters to older consumers, the newspaper said.
“It reflects a historical trend in demographic development rather than a short-term phenomenon,” Global Times quoted one researcher as saying.
The demographic shift is “symbolic” and could suggest more public spending will move from families and schools to pensions and healthcare, said Professor Stuart Gietel-Basten from The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.
It may also pose a challenge to the country’s ambitions, as it could limit its economic growth as well as people’s spending power, said National University of Singapore sociology lecturer Mu Zheng.
